Does the rule of certainty apply even if you feel urine coming out while doing istinja, but you can't find evidence of urine?

I was doing istinja and felt some urine come out. I checked to see if there was actually urine by checking my private part. I saw a water drop stay on the penis and then drop into the toilet, but this is the natural case when you pour water on the private part during istinja (i use a lota). I then wiped my private with toilet paper to further investigate and didn't see any water come out of my private. With this evidence, even if I felt urine exit, does the rule of certainty apply or not? I'm worried because if there is urine, then it got onto the carpet, sink, and bathtub which my family also uses. Thank you